Date posted: 29th Apr 2026
The North East Shadow MPC, a group of leading businesspeople from across the region, met to discuss their thoughts on the Bank of England-set base interest rate ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting.
Amid continued global uncertainty and economic turmoil, the Shadow MPC voted unanimously to hold rates at 3.75% in order to provide some level stability to businesses and consumers.
The Shadow MPC is a partnership between Newsquest, Clive Owen LLP and Recognition PR.
Kevin Brown, chief executive officer, Pacifica Group said: “Despite government’s best efforts, we still continue to invest and we’re still looking to deploy capital in the right place. But there’s always a flip side of that coin, and we have 300-plus engineers driving around the country. That’s going to cost us on a monthly basis, about £40,000.
Summarising his decision to vote to hold rates, Kevin said: “When you’re not sure whether to turn left or right, it’s best to go straight forward.”
Chris Beaumont, Partner at Clive Owen LLP, described Kevin’s comments as ‘a perfect analogy’, saying: “There’s a lot of nervousness around investment at the moment, with clients uncertain about how long this disruption will go on, so many are choosing to hoard cash and wait to see how things develop. I think it’s best we just stick where we are and then just see how things evolve over the next few months, hopefully resolved quicker rather than slower”
Donna James, research director at Populus Select, said: “After a real uptick in our operations and client activity from end of December through to beginning of April. Now we’re seeing uncertainty due to the Iran war and employers are telling us that we, that they’re going to hold on some recruitment.
“I nearly voted for a slight increase. I’m really worried about stagflation. I don’t think inflation from the oil situation has really fed through. Inflation will go up, so that’s why I voted for hold.”
Andrew Gilmore, associate director at Active Financial Planners said: “Markets have been really resilient despite obviously all of the uncertainty. We’ve seen that with clients still being pretty positive, but confidence is a little bit lower than it probably was at the start of the year with the Iranian conflict. I think people are just wanting to take a breath and see how it all unfolds.”
David Coates, managing director of Newsquest North, said: “Things have been pretty stable. I expected there to have been more of an impact on the advertising markets than there has so far been. The one sector that has shown some softness is property, where advertising volumes have slowed.
“The feedback from our sales teams when they’re talking to customers is that people are a little reluctant to commit to longer‑term campaigns, but for the moment, I would say it’s reasonably benign.”
Dr Arbab Basu MBE DL, CEO of Kromek, “There’s pressure from price rises that are coming through and international trade that gets reflected on shipping costs. Our sectors have remained reasonably robust. We’re in medical diagnostic imaging, which is protected from the global turbulence that we are experiencing. The defence sector is a mixed bag; the UK defence sector is, of course, not taking any decisions. But with everything that is going on in the Middle East, we are seeing quite a lot of activity from the remainder of the world.
“There is a disparity between the top end of the stock market and what’s happening in the general market itself, where capital is not flowing through, particularly on the AIM where the smaller and medium‑sized businesses are.”
Matt Burgess, partner at Evelyn Partners said: “The Bank of England have been stuck between a rock and a hard place – trying to grow the UK economy, but also have to keep inflation under control. Stripping out core inflation, which has energy and food excluded, inflation remains actually quite stable. However, there’s a clear correlation between oil price spikes and recessions. We need to wait and see.”
Kathryn Gardner, board member at Constructing Excellence North East, said: “Construction conditions are strongly against any further change. Construction activity is weak and uneven at the moment. There was some growth at the back end of 2025, but momentum’s fragile this year. Current output’s held up by infrastructure and public sector programmes, but private sector housing is down and the commercial sector is also subdued.
“Labour costs are a big issue, and that’s mostly due to lack of available skills rather than excess demand.”
Tim Bailey, head of practice at Xsite Architecture LLP said: “The construction industry feels buffeted by the short-term economic effects of global news and events but as of yet has not felt a necessary price adjustment due to relatively minor falls in the volume of workload. While a boost to investment would be welcome, at this stage, we do not think that would be delivered by an interest rate drop and possible inflationary impacts of a rate change would be far more impactful on forecasts for the rest of the year.”
You can watch the full Yorkshire Shadow MPC meeting for April 2026 via the video link below:
